Sat. Jul 2nd, 2022

Harry in Central Park

00:00:02

So right here we’re, proper on the steps of Belvedere Castle within the heart of Central Park, simply off of West 81st Street. And I’m on the lookout for the Weather Observatory, which Google tells me is correct close to right here, however I’ve by no means been right here. So we’ll attempt to work out precisely the place it’s we’ll stroll up there.

Yes, that is me in Central Park looking for the Weather Observatory. You might not know this, I wager a variety of New Yorkers do not, however they have been recording the climate right here on the Observatory for over a century. In reality, it is one of many longest lively climate stations within the nation. While, I’ve by no means been to the Weather Observatory in Central Park, effectively, I’m an enormous climate nerd. Huge. I’ve at all times been this manner. Growing up, I used to be obsessive about realizing when it was going to snow as a result of what’s higher than a snow day? But it shortly went past that. I joined on-line climate boards after I was in center college. I went to Penn State climate camp after I was in highschool. I even purposely selected a university in New Hampshire that averaged over 60 inches of snow per yr. To me, forecasting the climate appeared like magic. So through the years, I’ve taught myself about climate fashions, likelihood of precipitation. Heck, I’ve performed a variety of forecasting myself. Which brings us again to my quest to seek out the Weather Observatory in Central Park.

Harry in Central Park

00:01:24

This is type of ridiculous, within the sense that it’s, it is good right here. It’s like no larger than like a small room virtually if it was like outdoors. And it is simply, all these climate devices, as individuals stroll by virtually not even noticing it.

My journey to the observatory was cool, however like I mentioned whereas I used to be there, it was so odd to see all these individuals strolling by with out even noticing it. And in some ways, I really feel like that works as a type of allegory for a lot of our relationship with climate forecasting. You see, through the years, as I’ve adopted forecasts and messed with climate fashions myself, I’ve seen that for one thing that impacts actually each human being, each single day of their lives, individuals have a variety of misconceptions about climate forecasts or do not actually even understand how they work, which is humorous as a result of individuals love the climate. In reality, a 2019 survey from the Pew Research Center discovered that of all of the subjects coated on native information, broadcast, climate, climate was the factor most individuals mentioned was essential to their every day lives, which is smart, proper? If a forecast says it may rain later right this moment, you are in all probability going to take an umbrella with you. But that is additionally why people like to rag on forecasters after they get it incorrect. Heck, a part of the rationale why I wished to do an episode concerning the climate was a forecast that referred to as for the, quote unquote storm of the century, solely to whiff New York City virtually totally. So come hell or excessive water, by the top of right this moment’s episode, I assure that you will perceive how forecasting works, why it is by no means been higher, and the way local weather change might have an effect on our means to foretell the climate. I’m calling for clear skies, a lightweight breeze, and a complete bunch of details about the artwork of climate forecasting. I’m Harry Enten and that is Margins of Error.

So I feel everybody has a climate story from after they have been children or after they first took an interest within the climate. Most meteorologists that I do know have one.

This is John Homenuk. He’s a meteorologist, storm chaser and founding father of the forecasting weblog New York Metro Weather, which he began again in 2008.

I keep in mind very vividly, after I was seven or eight years outdated, being rushed to the basement by my mother and father as a result of there was a thunderstorm or a doable twister. And the reminiscence that I’ve in my head is feeling actually scared and helpless. That was a defining second for me the place I mentioned, I wish to find out about this so I do not really feel helpless, in the case of forecasting it and figuring it out, as a result of I didn’t like that feeling in any respect, and I nonetheless keep in mind it prefer it was yesterday.

So here is John now, supplying New York City with every day climate forecasts.

We’ve type of constructed this group the place individuals can be taught and speak concerning the climate and there is so many individuals which are within the climate. And that is grow to be a spot the place I can work together with individuals and type of develop a relationship with them. And what I like about it’s speaking it to individuals and giving individuals the chance to be taught and perceive it.

So I feel it is a pure segue to this query, which is clarify to me how forecasting works.

Meteorology is extraordinarily advanced, as I’m positive you already know, and after I describe to individuals what it’s, it is rather actually, our job is to foretell the long run. And so so as to try this, we have to begin by understanding what’s occurring proper now. And so we are going to take a considerable amount of time within the morning to have a look at radar, satellite tv for pc, every kind of issues which are accessible to us. Then we wish to attempt to predict what is going on to occur within the close to time period, so the following couple of hours. And we take a look at how issues are trending, present commentary clever, brief time period climate fashions begin to come into play. As you begin to get a little bit additional out into the following day and the day past that, issues begin to get extra difficult as a result of climate fashions are, you already know, trying to simulate a fluid course of, which is the ambiance. And so we’ve got to be very cautious as you get additional out from simply a few hours, during which climate mannequin are you utilizing for steering, you already know what, how are you weighing that in your forecast? And you are attempting to place collectively an image of what is smart transferring ahead, not simply a few hours, however now we’re a number of hours to the following day.

Like I mentioned, difficult.

And so after I clarify it this solution to individuals, most individuals begin to garner an appreciation for the truth that simply even getting the forecast proper the following day is, when you concentrate on it, fairly loopy. I imply, we’re capable of give an immense quantity of element as to what is going on to occur tomorrow based mostly on what we’re taking a look at right this moment and the know-how that we’ve got. So then once you begin to stretch it out into the medium vary, which I think about days like three to 6 from right this moment, you begin to get into a way more difficult dialog of the way you’re utilizing the climate fashions and understanding the climate patterns.

When listeners hear climate mannequin, what does that imply precisely?

So a climate mannequin may be very actually a code that’s written to attempt to simulate the atmospheric processes. So it takes the present situations which are ongoing proper at times tries to roll it ahead, simulating all the processes that we all know exist within the ambiance.

Talk concerning the fashions themselves and type of the way you’re capable of weight them within the forecast and and simply type of work out the place the heck issues are going.

Yeah, so, so climate fashions, there are a bunch of them. I imply, there’s, there’s the principle ones that are is the GFS international forecast system that is type of often called the American mannequin. There’s a European mannequin, there is a Canadian mannequin, there is a U.Ok. climate mannequin. And even past these, what we think about international fashions. So these are fashions which are forecasting the climate throughout your entire globe. There are fashions which are extra particular and inherently they’ll be incorrect. They’re going to be incorrect. And as meteorologists, our job is to know what this what story they’re attempting to inform us and the best way to use every of them individually to type of put the items of that puzzle collectively.

And I can say this from expertise. Taking what the fashions are telling you and utilizing them to make your personal forecasts, effectively, that is the place forecasting turns into an artwork.

The drawback, I feel for meteorologists and the problem is, understanding how these climate fashions work. So every of those fashions virtually has a persona of its personal. They have biases. They are likely to deal with several types of climate techniques in sure methods. And, you already know, for instance, the GFS normally is manner too progressive with coastal storms. It likes to slip them out to sea too quick. That’s been a bias within the mannequin for a decade now. As a meteorologist, we’ve got to issue all this in to our forecast.

I feel that is smart. Let me ask you this query. Why and the way have our forecasts gotten so good?

Well, that is a multifaceted reply. The greatest manner I may reply that, I might say, is I feel individuals have taken the time and invested a variety of time into understanding the ambiance and, you already know, climate fashions are one factor, proper? There’s there’s superb minds engaged on producing these climate fashions, that are unbelievable, proper? They’ve gotten so detailed. I hold mentioning we will predict particular person thunderstorms, issues like that. Incredible know-how growth has helped us a ton. We have a variety of fireplace energy behind these climate fashions. But I at all times return to the truth that individuals have taken the time to know the best way to use these fashions as steering, correctly. And so our forecasts have gotten good as a result of we have gotten higher at speaking it to individuals, speaking to the general public, which has led to those forecasts simply being extra dependable general.

If forecasting has improved a lot, why are we nonetheless getting forecasts incorrect? Sometimes?

Yeah, I imply, I feel it is a particularly reasonable query to ask. These issues are advanced and the climate prediction has improved a lot in all places. But we’re nonetheless studying the larger ones. The large, the massive storms are nonetheless very advanced and really tough to determine the place it is simply, you already know, the joke typically within the thunderstorm group is a farmer can sneeze in Oklahoma and alter the entire setup. And it is type of like once you’re watching a storm arising the coast, that would probably be large or couldn’t be, it is only a tiny little factor makes a distinction. And so the massive factor in meteorology is we attempt to do meteorology, not modelology. We do not wish to simply take a look at the climate fashions and use them solely as a result of that is the way you get your self into a nasty place. And so with the massive storms, you virtually have to sit down down. I keep in mind throughout January 2016, I sat down and made a listing of the reason why the storm would miss New York to the south from a meteorology perspective. And I had simply as many causes that it might hit as causes that it would not. And so it is these storms which are proper on the periphery that I feel, you already know, it is it may be some time earlier than we will confidently say, oh, this one’s undoubtedly going to hit New York. It’s simply it is simply too advanced and too intricate for us to get to that place.

So I assume the apparent observe to that’s, you already know, as I look in direction of the way forward for climate forecasting, is it actually doable that we’re ever going to be 100% correct on a regular basis with our climate forecasts? And clearly, that differs from each day. But take that query the place you may wish to take it.

Yeah, I, I trip on this. This is, you already know, I do not assume so. Just as just lately as final month, we had a thunderstorm occasion within the Midwest the place each climate mannequin that we had and these are among the greatest, strongest climate fashions, the best decision. They all mentioned that no storms have been going to kind and 4:00 pm, lo and behold, an enormous thunderstorm varieties. And it simply as a reminder that we nonetheless have a protracted solution to go as a result of the climate fashions are attempting to simulate a fluid course of within the ambiance. And it is extraordinarily tough. It’s extraordinarily tough to do. We’ve come a really great distance, however I do not know that can ever see a degree the place we might be 100% assured in simply letting the climate fashions roll and meteorologists taking the break day.

So perhaps we’ll by no means get to 100% accuracy with our climate forecasting, however that does not imply we won’t enhance it. Right. And after the break, I’ll speak with a trio of meteorologists about what they see as climate forecasting’s large drawback. Plus, I’ll inform you concerning the factor that impressed me to make this episode: a 2001 storm of the century, that wasn’t. That’s after the break.

Hey, people, welcome again. So hopefully you now have a greater understanding of simply how difficult climate forecasting actually is. Of course, not everybody does. And so our meteorologists get a forecast incorrect. Well, plenty of people are usually snippy.

Marshall Shepherd

00:12:29

I’ve had those who say it should be good to work in a discipline the place you might be incorrect 50% of the time and be paid nonetheless, when, the truth is, as you effectively know, we’re proper more often than not, I feel there is a notion one way or the other that we’re incorrect as a result of individuals have a tendency to recollect the occasional unhealthy forecast that perhaps wreaked havoc on their cookout or their son’s soccer sport.

This is Marshall Shepherd. Among many different titles and accolades, like greater than a decade working at NASA, he is the director of the University of Georgia’s Atmospheric Sciences Program and a former president of the American Meteorological Society.

Marshall Shepherd

00:13:06

One of the issues that has frequently amazed me in my profession, Harry, is that you’ve got those who get very indignant about occasional poor climate forecasts or doubt local weather predictions from consultants. Yet they ask me with a critical face what I consider a groundhog’s forecast for spring. I say it is a rodent. I imply, it has little or no talent. But, I imply, there are individuals with a straight face that ask me concerning the groundhog or almanacs and people forms of issues, however then dismiss type of occasional type of science based mostly modeling and so forth. So there may be an improbability and an irrationality that I’ve present in how individuals eat or see the climate.

I’ve seen it too. Heck, simply verify Twitter any time it rains when a forecast has predicted a sunny day. But for Marshall, effectively, there is a solution to repair this drawback. And it isn’t about elevating public consciousness of how forecasting works.

Marshall Shepherd

00:14:00

So a lot of my profession, whether or not it’s at NASA and even now, because the analysis I do on the University of Georgia, has been creating capability to raised perceive climate processes in order that we will predict them higher. But in that point, I’ve additionally developed a point of experience in speaking elements of climate and local weather from a threat perspective. And I do know that is one thing that you’ve got been fairly fascinated about as effectively, as a result of, you already know, one of many issues that I’m often called saying is we will have one of the best satellites and radars and laptop fashions on the earth, but when the top sport forecast would not get to the individual in a manner that they’ll use it or the corporate or the federal government company, was it an excellent forecast in any respect?

I’ve to ask, how can we make forecasting and climate information extra comprehensible and digestible for normal people, do you assume?

Marshall Shepherd

00:14:51

It’s an excellent query. I feel the following nice revolution in climate forecasting just isn’t the following nice radar or satellite tv for pc or mannequin. It’s in social sciences. You have so many extra communication psychologists and sociologists now working on the intersection of climate and communication, as a result of we all know that individuals eat colours a sure manner. We know that some individuals cannot find their residence on a county map. They cannot determine the county that they dwell in. And so when you’re issuing a twister watch or warning for a county by posting it on a web site someplace or on their telephone, they usually cannot find their county, is {that a} good metric or a warning? Even by way of the forms of language. If you take a look at the Storm Prediction Center, after they difficulty these storm outlooks, they use language like enhanced and reasonable. And some individuals say that they are counterintuitive by way of how individuals interpret these issues. So I feel this concentrate on type of how individuals eat what’s communicated will transfer us ahead.

Now, this was one thing that got here up throughout each single interview I did for this episode — that individuals will assume forecasting is best when meteorologists get higher at communication and totally different meteorologists have totally different concepts for a way to do that. Like take this query I posed to John Homenuk, who runs the New York Metro Weather weblog. Something I’m requested very ceaselessly is actually “okay, when a forecast says there is a 40% likelihood of rain or a 50% likelihood or a 60% likelihood, individuals go, what does that imply precisely?”

Yeah. So I wish to begin by saying that we have gone away from that so considerably in our merchandise due to the totally different understandings of it. I personally have a number of totally different understandings of it. I feel it may possibly imply many various issues. You know. I take it very actually, like if I’m placing a forecast out for New York City and I say there’s a 70% likelihood of rain right this moment, the way in which that I take advantage of that’s there’s a 70% out of 100 likelihood that you will see rain right this moment in New York. That’s type of the way in which that I do it. Other meteorologists have come to me and mentioned, oh, truly it means 70% of the realm goes to see rain. And so for me, it is like, okay, that is all manner too complicated, proper? Why do not we use some phrases that individuals can perceive a little bit higher? It’s like there’s an opportunity of scattered showers this afternoon between 3 and 5 p.m. And individuals have taken to that they usually’ve mentioned, okay, that makes much more sense to me than 30% likelihood of rain for your entire day. And I can plan my day accordingly.

So one path ahead is transferring away from percentages and making forecast in that type of conversational language that individuals use of their each day lives. Another possibility? Tapping into the truth that out of all of the dialog subjects in the entire broad world, individuals friggin love speaking concerning the climate.

It’s fascinating. It’s one thing they’ll grow to be concerned in with little or no effort.

I’ve been with the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang for about 13 years, now. My title, there may be Information Lead. As you already know, there’s simply an never-ending quantity of knowledge within the climate world. So it is a enjoyable title.

The Capital Weather Gang has their very own strategy for speaking and contextualizing uncertainties and forecasting by way of one thing they name “growth bust.” Basically, if a storm appears probably, however there are a selection of doable outcomes, they will give a growth state of affairs. This is how the storm may give us eight inches. And a bust state of affairs: if this occurs, we’ll see clouds and drizzle, however nothing else. This manner, they’ll clarify a number of doable outcomes such that it doesn’t matter what occurs, individuals can higher perceive the forecast and the probabilities.

I feel we nonetheless get lots of people making enjoyable of the Capital Weather Gang model as a result of, you already know, it’s going to be forecast to 4 to eight. But then if it busts, it is 0 to three. And if it is a growth, it is 9 to 12. So individuals are like, “oh, so your forecast is 0 to 12 inches. Good job, guys.” So there may be, I feel, nonetheless work to be performed in that space. But round right here, it isn’t that onerous as a result of the general public may be very type of attuned and educated. So they’re all type of able to nerd out with us. I’m at all times, I’m at all times shocked what number of climate geeks there are on the market.

But for as a lot as individuals like geeking out concerning the climate and belief me, I get that, there are lots of people that simply wish to hear precisely what the climate will probably be like each single day of their lives. And in response to Marshall Shepherd on the University of Georgia, that is an angle that should change.

Marshall Shepherd

00:19:48

One factor that I do wish to take this chance to say is, we as a public need to be okay with getting ready for an occasion that does not occur. What I imply by that’s I see individuals get actually indignant if they’re warned for a hurricane or warned for a twister, they usually make preparations they usually come again and their home continues to be standing. That’s an excellent factor. But we truly really feel, as a result of we took the time to organize, and there is this angst that, effectively, one thing ought to have occurred as a result of as I usually tweet and say, “I’m okay with getting ready for the worst and having one of the best final result occur.” I imply, that is why we’ve got automotive insurance coverage.

Which truly brings me to the factor that impressed this episode to start with, John Bolaris and the supposed storm of the century. Meteorologists from Washington, D.C., all the way in which as much as New York City and Bolaris on the NBC station in Philadelphia, have been calling for an enormous, large storm in early March 2001. We’re speaking 14 to twenty-eight inches of snow, large. Bolaris was one of many first meteorologists to essentially pump up this storm. And the NBC station in Philly ran a crawl throughout sweeps week that mentioned it could possibly be one of many worst storms within the final decade. Well, the storm did hit, it did, simply not the place anybody was predicting. Northern New York and New England acquired 24 to 30 plus inches of snow, however of the main metropolitan areas within the mid-Atlantic, solely New York City managed a minimum of two inches. And Philly, the principle focus of Bolarias’ forecast. effectively, from March 4th to the sixth, it acquired one entire inch of snow. The consequence was a significant, and I think about actually, actually unfair backlash to Bolaris. He acquired loss of life threats, however one way or the other issues went even past that. According to Philadelphia Magazine, Bolaris obtained pages torn from the Bible and a beer bottle full of useless crabs. And that is not even the worst of it. Adding salt to the wound, Philly Magazine reported {that a} man urinated on Bolaris at a Philly bar saying, quote, “it would not seem like snow.” I’ve by no means seen a tv climate persona handled the way in which Bolaris was. So the Bolaris instance actually has caught with me all these years. It makes me understand how essential it’s to get the forecast proper and the way essential it’s to be humble, particularly after we’re encountering one thing unprecedented. Indeed, right this moment, our total local weather system is seeing one thing unprecedented which can be impacting our means to forecast at massive. We’ll get to that after the break.

Hey, y’all, welcome again. So originally of the episode, I shared a stat about how climate is the primary subject that individuals worth on their native information protection. But maybe unsurprisingly, individuals shouldn’t have the identical affinity for a associated subject: local weather change. According to a 2019 Washington Post ballot, simply 10% of Americans say they usually discuss local weather change with pals. However, in response to a 2016 research from Pew, 71% of Americans say they’ve had a dialog about climate previously week. Of course, this episode being all about climate, effectively, we would be remiss to disregard local weather change. And because it seems, in response to a latest research from Stanford, it might truly have an effect on our means to foretell the climate. When I examine that, I needed to be taught extra. So I referred to as the lead researcher on the research.

My identify is Aditi Sheshadri. I’m an assistant professor of earth system science right here at Stanford. I’ve a few levels in engineering, mechanical and aerospace engineering, and a Ph.D. in atmospheric science.

So mainly, you are extraordinarily sensible. You took all the programs that I used to be petrified, and although I had an enormous curiosity in climate in center college and thought I wished to go and be an expert meteorologist, and noticed all the math and I like math, however not any such math. And you truly did it. Is that, I feel that is a good understanding of what you simply mentioned.

I’ve performed a variety of math. Yes.

So why do not you simply inform me among the areas of analysis that you just’re most fascinated about?

So I’m very fascinated about type of massive scale issues of atmospheric circulation. So I feel rather a lot about planetary scale issues just like the jets tream and the polar vortex, particularly. I get up each morning and take into consideration the polar vortex, actually. And I’ve additionally grow to be more and more fascinated about local weather modeling, as a result of local weather fashions are our greatest wager of seeing one thing about how local weather will change sooner or later. And on type of the extra utilized entrance, I’m additionally very fascinated about trying to enhance the accuracy of those fashions.

Unsurprisingly, local weather fashions play a giant half in Aditi’s research which seems to be particularly at local weather fashions within the mid-latitudes and within the northern hemisphere that covers locations like North America, most of Europe, virtually all of China. And within the southern hemisphere, that features locations like New Zealand, most of South Africa and Argentina.

So there are two elements of the research. In the primary a part of the research, we simply took a local weather mannequin. We introduced it to totally different local weather states. So we’ve got an earth, as an illustration, which is 16 levels cooler than right this moment’s Earth. We have an Earth, which is 16 levels hotter than right this moment’s Earth and a bunch of climates in between. We did this evaluation of how shortly errors grew throughout all of those totally different climates. You simply take your mannequin, you run it ahead, say 20 occasions with barely totally different preliminary situations. You see when the errors cease rising. And you try this for every of those totally different local weather states. So that is referred to as error saturation. And that offers us some measure of how predictable climate will probably be in that local weather. At the top of all of that, you understand that there is a fairly systematic relationship. If the Earth was very a lot cooler, then we might have the ability to say one thing correct concerning the climate a little bit additional out than we might right this moment. And if the Earth have been hotter, it is the opposite manner round. And this window of correct climate prediction narrows as you get hotter and hotter and hotter.

When it involves the general outcomes, is there type of an express reply, would you say, about how way more shortly forecasts hit error saturation in hotter climates?

Sure. So I can provide you a quantity after which I may even say that it is depending on the mannequin, in all probability. So it appeared that for rainfall, it was about 0.3 days much less within the window of of correct prediction for every diploma Celsius rise in temperature. And a little bit bit much less for issues like wind the place it was 0.2 days per diploma Celsius rise in temperature. So when you go up by three levels Celsius, you get a day much less by way of rainfall.

Which might not appear to be a lot, however in response to information from the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, Earth has warmed by 0.08 levels Celsius each decade since 1880. By now, Earth’s about one diploma Celsius hotter than it was then. And the World Meteorological Association warns that Earth’s temperature will certainly proceed to rise over the following few years. So at the same time as our climate forecasting is getting higher and higher, effectively, we’re additionally making issues harder for ourselves.

We are all very used to fascinated about climate prediction. And if the climate forecast says it may rain tomorrow, I’ll in all probability take it fairly significantly. If it says it may rain ten days out, I’m going to take it type of much less significantly. If it says it may rain 14 days out, I’m not going to take it significantly in any respect. And so all of us have the type of instinctive understanding that there’s a restrict to the accuracy of the forecast. And so what we confirmed was that the boundaries to the accuracy of the forecast, modifications is predicated on the essential temperature of the Earth. It’s this very nice hyperlink between climate and local weather. So in hotter climates, we anticipate a shorter window of correct prediction. And in cooler climates, we anticipate an extended window of correct prediction.

Is there any solution to type of future-proof our forecasts in gentle of those outcomes? Or can we simply must embrace the truth that if our local weather is maybe, the truth is, going to grow to be hotter and clearly local weather change can have totally different regional results, I grant you that, however let’s simply say we’re in a spot the place it turns into hotter, that our forecasts will grow to be much less correct sooner. Is there something we will actually do about it?

I might assume that there are going to be systematic enhancements in our forecasting techniques with time. But the purpose of the research is that that is an inherent restrict. It’s not one thing that we will do something about essentially. And I do hope that that is one thing that has opened up extra questions than it is answered. So I hope that each by way of my group and anybody else who’s , there’s going to be much more work on this entrance to attempt to make sense of the consequence in addition to lengthen it.

I’ve been eager to do a climate episode on this podcast since Margins of Errors’ conception. The purpose is fairly easy. I like the climate and I do know most of you do too. It’s one thing that has a common affect. Just now, my girlfriend instructed me that we wanted to get going as a result of her telephone mentioned rain was anticipated to begin falling in 20 minutes. I, ever the stickler, needed to verify the radar and disagreed together with her telephone. Side notice, I used to be proper. That’s one of many nice and annoying issues about climate forecasting. There’s room for interpretation. It’s partially artwork and partially science. And we’ve not perfected the best way to precisely know what is going on to occur. No one is Nostradamus in the case of meteorology. The excellent news, and there may be excellent news, is that our means to forecast is getting higher. Whether that one thing is pedestrian is ensuring a stroll to get fro-yo is dry, or as critical as giving individuals sufficient time to take cowl from a twister. My hope is that this episode helped you perceive why we should always all care about climate forecasting and why it is so onerous, and will solely get more durable. So subsequent time your native climate individual screws up the forecast, do not forget that normally and amazingly, they get it proper. Coming up on our subsequent episode, it is a bit of an understatement, however the world of journey is in a bizarre place proper now, so we’re going to check out among the greatest methods to get out and about today from cross-country practice journeys to the last word highway journey. Plus, a take a look at what could be the biofuel of the long run. That’s arising subsequent time. Margins of Error is a manufacturing of CNN Audio and Western Sound. Our showrunner is Cameron Kell. Our producer is Savannah Wright. Production help and reality checking by Nicole McNulty. Mischa Stanton is our combine engineer. Additional help from Tameeka Ballance-Kolasny, Dan Dzula, Allison Park and Alex McCall. Our govt producers are Ben Adair and Megan Marcus. And me? Well, I’m Harry Enten.

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